Scotland at the crossroads

PhD student James Cameron looks at the influence of the Scottish National Party and prospects for Scottish independence in the lead up to Scotland’s upcoming referendum. This is an edited version of a speech he gave at the Annual Parliamentary Scottish Dinner at Australian Parliament House in late June.

Scotland is currently at a cross-roads in its domestic politics and its relationship with the United Kingdom. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has been the major force behind the upcoming referendum on independence taking place in September this year.

The SNP formed a majority government in Scotland in 2011, in a parliament that was designed to prevent a single party forming a majority. This followed on from its success as a minority government from 2007-11. The SNP’s electoral success in 2011 gave them a mandate to legislate for a referendum on independence.

What’s driving the SNP’s success?

There are many reasons for the success of the SNP in the Scottish Parliament to date, the first of which was the creation of the Scottish Parliament itself in 1999. They immediately became the official opposition, with a serious chance of becoming a future government. Although popular in Scotland in the decades prior to 1999 in Westminster elections, the party never achieved significant success due to the structure of that electoral system.

This new possibility of becoming government meant that the SNP needed to, and did, professionalise in terms of its policy development, fundraising, media engagement, and election campaigning. This sits in contrast to other parties in Scotland which have lacked the organisation, unity, drive and sense of purpose that the SNP has had since 1999.

The SNP proved itself to be a competent and effective opposition and government since 1999, with competent, articulate and charismatic leaders and leadership team. Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon are highly skilled SNP leaders, and are supported by a highly capable ministerial team.

A civic nationalist party, the SNP takes the view that people born anywhere in the world are Scottish if they have decided to make Scotland their home now and in the future. The SNP labels itself a left-of-centre party, but there are many fiscal conservatives in its ranks, such as the current Scottish treasurer John Swinney.

An increase in Scottish national identity is also a significant factor. Survey data shows that Scottish national identity has been increasing since the 1960s and British identity declining, which incidentally parallels a similar trend in Australia in the growth of Australian national identity. Surveys also show that support for constitutional change, in terms of both a devolved parliament and an independent Scotland have been growing.

The 2014 referendum on Scottish independence

On 18 September this year a referendum will be held on Scottish independence on the question: ‘Should Scotland be an independent country?’

Scots living outside of Scotland will not be eligible to vote. The SNP’s policies are that an independent Scotland will remain in the European Union, will remain in NATO, will remain in the Commonwealth, will keep the Queen as head of state and will continue to use the pound as Scotland’s currency into the foreseeable future.

In recent decades, polls have usually shown that only around a third of Scots supported independence. However, this year the polls have been narrowing, and the latest polls show support for and against independence are neck and neck. The momentum this year has been going the way of the ‘Yes’ campaign in favour of independence. I wouldn’t bet my house on a result either way, but if forced I’d probably lean more towards a vote in favour of independence.

The momentum is currently with the ‘Yes’ campaign, which is more organised and motivated, and has hundreds of branches across Scotland. This is compared to only a handful of branches in Scotland for ‘Better Together’ advocating a ‘no’ vote to independence. Undecided voters are moving more towards a Yes vote.

A ‘no’ vote will not stop the process of devolution, and there is a strong possibility of another referendum down the track, as was the case with the Quebec independence referendums in 1980 and 1995. Scottish nationalists will not quit if they do not win this year’s referendum, as they see it as a struggle that has continued for hundreds of years, and as the only way forward for Scotland.

Prospects for an independent Scotland

There is no doubt that an independent Scotland would be a prosperous and successful nation, and an independent Scotland would be in a very strong position.

OECD figures published this year show that Scotland ranks 14th in world league tables of GDP per capita (or wealth per person), four places higher than the UK as a whole. A recent report by the UK Office for National Statistics showed that Scotland is the most educated country in Europe. It has some of the biggest offshore wind and marine energy resources in the whole of Europe, and its food and drink industry turns over more than £13 billion annually.

Scotland’s manufacturing sector exports around £15 billion a year. There are up to 24 billion barrels of oil still to be extracted in Scottish waters with a potential wholesale value of £1.5 trillion. The latest Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland report showed that Scotland has generated more tax per head than the rest of the UK for each and every one of the past 33 years.

The result of the referendum will have minimal impact on Australia, if any. Our flag does have the Union Jack on it, and the break-up of the United Kingdom, may lead to increased calls to change our flag. Our constitution also mentions the United Kingdom in at least a couple of places. However, the remaining parts of the UK, by all indications will continue to refer to themselves as the United Kingdom in the event of Scottish independence, and may well even continue to use the Union Jack.

The result of the referendum, however, will have a profound impact on Scotland over coming decades, and it is a momentous time in Scotland’s history. It will be keenly watched by many political scientists and journalists the world over. 

James Cameron is undertaking a PhD titled ‘From Niche to Mainstream: Explaining the Electoral Success of the Scottish National Party since 1999’. So far he has interviewed 59 Members of the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh as part of his PhD research.